Great fun ? brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling (Freakonomics)An idiosyncratically brilliant new book (Sunday Telegraph)A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected (Guardian)Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling (Financial Times)Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot (Sunday Times)In the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point (Time)

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday

'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent

'Funny, quirky and thought-provoking ... confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' John Cornwell, Sunday Times

'Idiosyncratically brilliant' Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph

'Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling' Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author of Freakonomics